here we go
November 30, 2010 2 Comments
The last round of backtesting is complete and I’m starting the forward test with MCNP_EA V.mafr3.64. Everything has been set up, and we should start to see a feed at the right of this page. We’re starting the forward test on the EURUSD (5M). I should say, though, that based on the backtest, this EA could go days without trading. This might turn out to be about as exciting as watching paint dry…
GatorNuke's Lab 
Whats you balance on the forward testing system. As i can see in the tester results, there where 112 trades in a 5 year period. After how many trades the system is for you tested and proofed?
My test balance as of now is still $500k. No trades have been placed since I went live on Tuesday. This is not surprising, since the EA does not trade every day. In fact, in the backtest it sometimes didn’t trade for a week or two, and sometimes evenlonger than that.
As for the test results: The test was executed for 5 years (358493 5-minute bars), but trading was only allowed after 296910 bars. Therefore, the actual test took place over a 61,583 bar period, or roughly 43 weeks. This was done so that sufficient statistics would be available to the EA during the backtest. Could i have tested over a longer period? sure, and I plan to continue backtesting, but these tests take a very long time.
Now, as far at what point do I consider the system tested, that’s a good question, and I’m afraid there is no simple answer. One could always say that there is more testing to be done, but I would start to gain confidence in this system after a couple of months where trades are placed and the results are consistent with the backtest results.