Experiment 2 (4/10 – 4/20) completed

This experiment was cut short due to a power outage the morning of 4/20.  We had a terrible windstorm overnight, and it disrupted electric service.  The battery backup kept the computer, router and modem working, but the backup generator failed to start.  I couldn’t figure out what was wrong with the generator before the battery backup ran out and I had to leave for work anyways.  Instead of restarting the experiment when I got home and running it one more day, I decided to just go with the data collected thus far and move on to the next phase next week.

This experiment tested the DMA, MAFR, and MACD versions in the 1/5/15 and 1/30/60 timeframes.  We collected data on each gain/loss for every configuration and proceeded to make a Student’s t-test for unequal sample size and unequal variance.  The degrees of freedom were calculated using the Welch–Satterthwaite equation.

The following are selected experimental results, noting only the significant findings.  Please go to the Metrics page for the rest.

Results

The following data was obtained during the duration of the experiment:

Cumulative pips during the test period

Average pips per trade

Analysis

Ho2: The difference between any one configuration and the aggregate of the rest is due to randomness  (α=0.05)

We reject the null hypothesis.  The MACD 1/5 configuration is statistically significantly different from the rest of the configurations as an aggregate given the chosen probability criterion.

Conclusions

Most of the results were inconclusive, however, the MACD 1/5 version had an average of 5 pips/trade, finished the test period with 170 accumulated pips, and the results were statistically significant when compared with all other results.

The next phase of the experiment will focus on the MACD 1/5.  We will test this configuration further under a wider variety of conditions and see if it can be improved further.

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